Belarus’ presidential election is scheduled for January 26th, 2025, with the international community widely acknowledging that the dictatorship will likely once again use deceptive methods in order to allow for the president, Alexander Lukashenka, to secure a seventh consecutive term. In the election of 2004, in Lukashenka’s second term, a mandate from voters passed, effectively enabling the authoritarian government to eliminate constitutionally protected term limit laws. Under the several decades of this president’s rule, he has slowly become a more unpopular figure within Belarus, yet still manages to landslide the presidential elections, oftentimes winning nearly 80% of the national vote. The international community, and particularly Western leaders, have condemned his governments’ handling of the 2020 response to national protests, where large scale outcry by Belarusian citizens resulted in systemically reported acts of aggression by the state, including Belarusian police forces opening fire with live ammunition on civilians, arresting people and leaving them to die in hot police cars, and even citizens being hanged from trees for speaking out against the president re-elect. Such actions have, as a result, created a prolonged and serious opposition force, with Svitlana Tsikhanouskaya primarily leading the charge, accusing Lukashenka of falsifying the election results, claiming that she herself had actually won the 2020 election; an assertion which multiple exit polls support. Many such analyses, such as one done by the organization Honest People in collaboration with other institutions have even claimed that according to data publicized by the Belarusian government, it is physically impossible for Lukashenka to have won the 2020 election, as one third of polling stations saw wild skews.
In light of this knowledge regarding the previous six elections, it is therefore reasonable to forecast that Lukashenka will most likely order the polling stations to produce him another landslide victory with roughly 80% of the national vote. As a result of his re-election, there is significant potential for social unrest in Belarus, where the ever less popular dictator may face a threat from his own population through large scale protests which could easily transition into riots. Prime targets would include government buildings, the Belarusian police forces, and even politicians and other government employees who advance the president’s interests. Such a situation has the ability to deteriorate at a rapid pace at this current point in time, as Belarus’ partner which they have always relied on the most to counter these protests and riots, the russian federation, are currently occupied with fighting a war of attrition in Ukraine, using virtually all of their resources to advance even for just a few meters each day. This leaves the Belarusian government in a tumultuous situation, where, at best, they arrest and kill critics and opposition figures located in Belarus, and, at worst, may face a collapse of their regime. Such a possibility of this event should not be underestimated, as we have recently seen the collapse of the Ba’athist Syrian government as a result of russia’s preoccupation with Ukraine. The question is therefore how russia would respond to such instability upon the request of Lukashenka for help, or if they will allow Belarus’ government to collapse just like in Syria. Furthermore, it will greatly depend on the coordination of anti-Lukashenka figures, and how effectively they will organize significant resistance to the regime. Nonetheless, Belarus faces an incredibly uncertain and alarming next few weeks and months, as the presidential election on January 26th, 2025, is bound to cause backlash from its’ citizens for electing the president for a seventh consecutive term.
https://www.politico.eu/article/belarus-announces-date-for-lukashenkos-re-election/
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53721410
https://president.gov.by/en/president/biography
https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna6276009
https://apnews.com/article/europe-belarus-f8995831b28eb7880e2b667bbcbca912
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1kSprtBUUtS1vb-W_jc4QJkPkoZPJBWxd/view
MIDON INTEL 